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Article by Justin Keay, published in Jane’s Foreign
Report on 28 July 2005.
Years of international embargoes
and non-recognition of the Turkish Republic of North
Cyprus (TRNC) by any country other than Turkey have
accustomed Turkish Cypriots to disappointment.
Fifteen months ago they voted yes to the UN’s Annan
Plan in the April 2004 referendum, hoping to secure
reunification and EU membership, only to see Greek
Cypriots vote no and join the EU anyway. With little
immediate prospect of an end to their isolation,
Turkish Cypriots blame the EU in particular for not
pressuring the south to allow direct flights, direct
trade and the release of a promised aid package of
259 million Euros.
“The hopes generated by the
(April 2003) opening of the Green Line, when
Cypriots mixed freely for the first time in years,
has metamorphosised into disappointment,” says TRNC
President Mehmet Ali Talat, adding that without more
pressure the Greek Cypriots will continue to do
everything to frustrate Turkish Cypriot aspirations
to rejoin the international community. His foreign
minister Serdar Denktash agrees.
“The Greek Cypriots have everything they want: why
should they look for a power sharing agreement? They
don’t need it and have demonstrated quite clear they
don’t want it,” he says. So what are north Cyprus’s
prospects?
#On the plus side, its economy is healthier than it
has ever been; Talat reckons GDP grew last year by
around 20%, with per capita income rising to $7500,
fuelled by a construction boom (mainly for new
holiday homes for British buyers in particular), the
opening of the border (enabling larger numbers to
work in the south) and growing tourism. Signs of the
prosperity are evident everywhere, from the
sparkling new airport terminal at Ercan to the new
hotels opening along the north coast, near Kyrenia.
Tourism is up, at around 300,000 a year: although
this is a mere fraction of the estimated three
million who visit the south each year, with main
hotels reporting 80-90% capacity over the summer.
The university sector is growing: there are
currently six, catering to students from the Middle
East and beyond, with fees now accounting for some
20% of foreign earnings. With many hoping for a pick
up in foreign investment, both in tourism and in the
(currently negligible) hi-tech sector, prospects for
a more diversified economy look good (until now
casinos, offshore banking and Turkish government
subsidies have kept the TRNC afloat).
#On the negative side, growth cannot be sustained
unless the TRNC breaks out of its isolation. Local
politicians admit there are risks of overheating,
especially given that the population is just
200,000. Meanwhile evidence of the north’s limbo
status is everywhere.
Ercan Airport may be new but it feels oddly empty;
thanks to the embargo on direct flights only Turkish
Airlines and Cyprus Turkish Airlines fly there. In
Kyrenia, the landmark Dome Hotel should be a trump
card with its fantastic views, location and history
yet there is a general sense of neglect, atrocious
food and surly state-employed staff. Why? The Dome
remains the legal property of the Greek family who
fled after 1974, and is thus run “in trust” but
without much care by the TRNC authorities. Yet the
Dome’s fate – along with many other property issues
- could have been resolved under the Annan Plan.
Nowhere is the failure of the Annan Plan more acute
than in those areas that would have been handed back
to the south, with their status putting off even
Turkish investors; Morphou, before 1974 Cyprus’s
main fruit growing area, has been worst hit with
many fearing its underground aquifers are silting
up.
#Some suggest north Cyprus’s best
recourse is to become another Taiwan - without de
jure but with growing de facto recognition,
sustained by a growing domestic prosperity than
reduces its long-term dependence on its neighbour.
Yet leaders say this cannot happen unless its
current limbo status is resolved, its isolation
broken and moves are made towards a solution on a
bi-zonal basis.
“The EU doesn’t have to recognise us but should at
least acknowledge we exist,” says Serdar Denktash.
Yet Turkish Cypriot delegates have only observer
status at the EU Commission and are barred from
visiting commission offices, leaving them to lobby
in halls and coffee bars. For many Turkish Cypriots,
as time passes and the EU fails to meet its promises
or lift their isolation, there is a growing sense
that they are on the wrong side of history – despite
having done everything they were asked to do.
“Can you imagine not being able to plan your or your
children’s future? The uncertainty we face is even
greater than before,” says Denktash.
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